Scientists start to panic over climate change
May 20th, 2008
Australian of the year, well-known scientist and climate change activist, Tim Flannery is sounding decidedly panicky as he suggests a technical plan to save us from climate change. The plan essentially amounts to terraforming the planet by pumping sulphur into the upper atmosphere in the hope that global dimming will counteract the effects of warming caused by greenhouse gasses. His chilling quote: “”The current burden of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is in fact more than sufficient to cause catastrophic climate change”. Let’s hope that he is wrong, or better, that in the face of impending disaster we don’t panic and multiply our problems.
The plan is no doubt intended to be a last ditch scenario to stave off massive collapse of the ecosystem and consequently civilisation as we appreciate it (at least I hope it is). I fully expect that there is some scientific thinking behind this – some, but not nearly enough. I also think that is it an unacceptable risk, but I understand why the professor and other scientists are starting to panic.
The are a number of “tipping point” scenarios that could lead to catastrophic and “irreversable” (taking millions of years to correct) failure of the global environment. This may have happened already in prehistory: the “Permian–Triassic extinction event“, is believed to have been a climate change tipping point where 70-90% of all species were wiped out (perhaps by as little as a 6 degree C change). These scenarios scare the pants off me, and hopefully you too. This is not just a matter of slapping on more sunscreen folks: the effect on our civilisations is hard to fathom, but would surely lead to the demise of millions, if not billions, of humans.
Yes, as people often mention, the climate has been hotter in the past, but they usually fail to mention (or realise) that the consequences have been dire. The current situation may be even worse – never before in history has climate changed anywhere near this rapidly, and CO2 increases do not seem to have been affected by our efforts so far. Stop second guessing it – trust in the overwhelming scientific consensus, and don’t be confused by the those seeking to muddy the facts. Work harder to pressure governments to improve their climate policy. Work harder to reduce your carbon footprint. But most of all, don’t panic!
August 8th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Damien, I suggest you consult a few peer-reviewed climate change journals to see just how huge the consensus on human-caused climate change is. Have a look at the abstracts in “Climatic Change” for example:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/100247/
You information on CO2 is distorted: it has already been shown that CO2 in some situations retards plant growth, and it is well known that concentrations of CO2 that are even a fraction of a percent can be harmful to animal life. All this and its a greenhouse gas too!
January 6th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Damien, these are old arguments covered in details elsewhere. Here is the synopsis.
petitionproject: This petition was not done under controlled conditions. Most of the signers were not climate scientists, and many were not even scientists. In fact, some were fictional cartoon characters. It is also ancient history (more than a decade old I think?), and many viewpoints have changed in that time.
“why has the planet actually been cooling for the last 7 years while CO2 has been increasing”
It hasn’t – see NASA GISS data. In general, you need to discern the ripples on the bathtub from the drop in level when you pull the plug out. Anyone that watches the stock market knows this. We are just coming out of a solar minimum, which makes the continued rise even more telling.
“CO2 is NOT a greenhouse gas as much as the 98% water vapour in the atmosphere the is heated by the sun.”
Indeed, and if CO2 raises the temperature, there is more water vapour, yes?
I take it you didn’t go and look at the climate science journals as I suggested? Most have free abstracts online.
January 6th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Damien wrote: “This year has been the 2nd quietest sun since 1900, only 1913 was quieter with 311 days, hence the reason for a cooler planet.”
There a good summation by NASA here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
From the intro:
“The meteorological year, December 2007 through November 2008, was the coolest year since 2000, according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis of surface air temperature measurements. It was the ninth warmest year in the period of instrumental measurements, which extends back to 1880. The nine warmest years all occur within the eleven-year period 1998-2008.”
.. the rest makes good reading.